Abstract
This is an academic research by apply R statistics analysis to an agency A of an existing betting consultancy firm A. According to the Dixon and Pope (2003), due to business confidential and privacy I am also using agency A and firm A in this paper. The purpose of the anaysis is measure the staking model of the firm A. For more sample which using R for Soccer Betting see http://rpubs.com/englianhu. Here is the references of rmarkdown and An Introduction to R Markdown. You are welcome to read the Wrangling F1 Data With R if you are getting interest to write a data analysis on Sports-book.
1. Introduction to the Betting Stategics
- Section 1.1 Introducing Betting Strategies - Introduce Betting Strategies
- Section 1.2 Value Betting - Odds Price and Overrounds Changared by Bookmakers
- Section 1.3 Professional Gambler - Punters’ life and How Hedge Fund Works
1.1 Introducing Betting Strategies
As a player, we know gambling is that an activities which bet against bankers. Normally gamblers applied few betting strategies to make money from bankers or may be other players. You can try to refer to ??????????????????R???Python - Data Science is the art of turning data into actions - ?????????21?????????????????????or Betting Strategy for more information.
Well, I’ll introducing some sports betting strategies used by a company Sports Insights (You can just read as your own reference, since I’ve never subscribe thier service, here I term it as SI) might help you improve your winning percentage and start making money investing in sports. The following concepts represent some of the most lucrative historical betting trends and are the same tools used by sharp bettors to turn consistent profits.
- Sports Betting Strategy 1 - Betting Against the Public
Betting Against the Public is one of the most popular and simplest methods used by SI to maximize value in the sports betting marketplace.
- Sports Betting Strategy 2 - Reverse-Line Movement
SI will show how analyzing betting trends data and line movement can help you identify which games the sharp money (wagers placed by sharps, wiseguys or betting syndicates) is taking.
- Sports Betting Strategy 3 - Major Line Moves
SI’s major line move analysis explains how to interpret line moves across the sports betting marketplace in order to find value.
- Sports Betting Strategy 4 - Shading Sports Betting Lines
This article explains how sportsbooks shade their lines to exploit human tendencies and how you can take advantage by using SI’s Betting Against the Public strategy.
- Sports Betting Strategy 5 - Shopping for the Best Line
Shopping for the best possible number is an easy way to improve your winning percentage over the course of an entire season.
- Sports Betting Strategy 6 - The Importance of Units Won
Understanding the importance of units won vs winning percentage will help you evaluate the true worth of any sports betting system.
Here is some websites or companies which provides sportsbook trading/betting.
-Sports Betting Tips For Profit
[16]Maurizio Montone (2015) taking 82 operators’ as sample data for research on arbitrages and bookmakers’ characteristics. [17]Steven D. Levitt (2004) analyse the betslips breakdown which is similar with section 3 in this paper.
1.2 Value Betting
Section 1.1 Introducing Betting Strategies describe some basic concepts about betting strategies. Now we focus on Value betting and it is the popular and efficient staking strategy since money management is the key for betting strategy.
It's not a matter of life or death. But if that team, that result or that referee's decision goes against them, the lives of their wives and their children are affected. The mortgage does not get paid. Holidays are cancelled. They are not players or managers. They are football's professional gamblers.
It is their full-time job to win money betting on the game. There are not many successful enough to survive. It is estimated, by the gamblers interviewed here, that fewer than 3 percent of gamblers who have what it takes to "go pro" can earn a living from betting.
No wonder they are a secretive, paranoid bunch. Never do they reveal exactly how they win their money or how much. Their greatest secret is what is known as "the edge". That nugget of information which tells them that the odds on the football betting market is wrong. Only then do they hand over their hard-won dough.
It takes hours of eye-bleeding research to find "the edge". Most pros spend hours, and thousands of pounds, building statistical models. Others will employ specialists—analysts and statisticians—to build a complex algorithm for them. If successful enough, they will attract wealthy investors who will hand over thousands, sometimes millions, to bet for them and be promised a healthy return.
Tony Bloom, a legendary gambler known as "The Lizard" is one such operator. So revered, Bloom runs Star Lizard, a company that employs a raft of people to analyse football matches for his millionaire-only investors. Bloom is rumoured to be worth more than £1 billion and owns Brighton, the Premier League wannabes.
source : Mugs and Millionaires: Inside the Murky World of Professional Football Gambling
The best and the most successful punters are money managers looking for ideal situations, which are defined as matches with only high percentage of return. In individual situations luck will play into the outcome of an event, which no amount of odds compiling can overcome, but in the long run a disciplined punter will win more of those lucky games than lose.
1.3 Professional Gambler
Nowadays, operates make a lot of restriction to increase their profits. For example: single bet maximum stakes per account, triggers upon staking per bet, single match maximum stakes per account, vigorous/spreads margin (Which will describe in 2.2 Overrounds / Vigorish). As a professional gambler we are require a high level mathematical skill in order to take profit from operators. Below are some articles about sports betting data analysis. - Play Data, Play Ball!Exploring Baseball Data with R - openWAR - How Predictable is the English Premier League? - It’s boffins versus bookies on the World Cup Rankings
As we know George Soros and Jim Rogers are two of most successness punters in financial market while they used to analyse more than 25 companies from financial reports and also their business when they was working in Atom fund. Environment and the life of punters. - Preparing for a Career as a Sports Statistician: Two Interviews with People in the Field - How hedge funds work - Rob Mastrodomenico uses data to estimate the outcomes of sports events for professional punters, and it’s a complicated business - ATASS - Work to have fun - ??????????????????????????????????????? - ???????????????:????????????156???????????????????????????“????????????”???
Now that you have some basic betting strategy knowledge and concept, you can try to learn further sportsbook staking modelling to take the challenge.
2. Data
- Section 2.1 Collect and Reprocess the Data - Data from Firm A
- Section 2.2 Overrounds / Vigorish - Odds Price and Overrounds Changared by Bookmakers
2.1 Collect and Reprocess the Data
I collect the data-set of World Wide soccer matches from year 2011 until 2015 from a British betting consultancy named firm A. All bets placed by display on HK currency, and the odds price also measure based on Hong Kong price.
I tried to apply RSelenium on RStudio Server Centos7 to scrape the data from live-score website includes the odds price but the binary phantomjs is not available for Linux, and I also not familiar with the installation of Java as well as setting of the path for rJava. Kindly refer to Natural Language Analysis for more information about the teams name matching.